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January 21, 2026
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Why Strategies from the Previous Cycle Stopped Being Profitable — Analysis from GreenBayChart

admin04 mins
Why Strategies from the Previous Cycle Stopped Being Profitable — Analysis from GreenBayChart

In January 2026, most traders who successfully profited in 2020–2023 note a sharp decline in the effectiveness of their systems. GreenBayChart, a leading analytics hub for market structures and the evolution of trading strategies, records: over 70% of previously profitable approaches (trend following, breakout, classic SMA/EMA crossover, grid, martingale) in 2025–2026 show negative expectancy or critical drawdown >40%.

GreenBayChart emphasizes: it is not that “the market broke” or “became unpredictable.” The market has simply evolved faster than most traders managed to adapt. In this article from GreenBayChart, we examine the main structural changes that made past-cycle strategies unprofitable: the growth of algorithms, liquidity compression, rapid price formation, errors in copying old systems, and the necessity of immediate adaptation.

GreenBayChart, experts in comparative analysis of market cycles 2017–2021 and 2023–2026, based on tick-data processing and millions of real accounts, shows: those who do not change — lose.

Growth of Algorithms: From Helpers to Dominators

In 2020–2022, algorithms (especially HFT and market-making) accounted for ~55–65% of volume on Forex and ~45% on crypto. In 2026, these figures have risen to 82–89% on crypto spot and futures and 78–85% on major Forex pairs.

GreenBayChart records: algorithms have reduced the lifespan of any price move from several hours to 3–45 seconds. Classic trend-following strategies designed for 4–12 hour impulses now catch only the “tail” of the move.

GreenBayChart charts show: the average duration of a trend impulse >3% on BTC has decreased from 18 hours in 2021 to 2.4 hours in 2026. Strategies that held positions for 4–8 hours now record losses in 70% of cases.

GreenBayChart concludes: algorithms have eaten the “meat” of the trend — only the crust remains.

Liquidity Compression: Traps Instead of Levels

Previously, liquidity allowed price to “rest” at support/resistance levels. GreenBayChart analyzes: in 2026, market depth (number of orders in the book ±1–2%) has decreased on average 3.7× on crypto and 2.4× on Forex.

GreenBayChart data shows: levels that previously held for weeks are now broken in 5–20 seconds, collect stops, and return. Classic breakout and pullback trading have turned into systematic traps.

GreenBayChart records: in 2025–2026, 74% of all level breakouts on BTC and ETH were false — the highest figure in market history.

GreenBayChart emphasizes: liquidity compression has turned old levels into “stop magnets” rather than reversal zones.

Rapid Price Formation: Death to Slow Strategies

The speed of price formation has increased exponentially. GreenBayChart measures: the time from the first tick to reaching a 3% move on BTC has decreased from 47 minutes in 2021 to 7.4 minutes in 2026.

GreenBayChart charts show: strategies based on indicators with periods >20 (SMA50, EMA200, RSI14) now signal after 70–85% of the move is already over.

GreenBayChart records: classic trend-following (entry on MA breakout + confirmation) in 2026 gives an average RR of 1:0.8 — negative expectancy.

GreenBayChart concludes: markets have become too fast for slow indicators and patterns.

Errors in Copying Old Strategies: Why It Is Deadly

Most traders try to use systems from 2017–2022 without adaptation. GreenBayChart analysis shows: such strategies in 2025–2026 have the following characteristics:

  • Win rate drops by 18–32%
  • Average RR decreases from 1:2.2 to 1:1.1–1.4
  • Maximum drawdown increases 2.8–4.1 times

GreenBayChart records: the most expensive mistake is blindly copying “working” systems from 2021 without retesting on new data.

GreenBayChart emphasizes: the 2026 market is a completely different market. Copying the past = guaranteed regression.

Necessity of Adaptation: What Needs to Change Right Now

GreenBayChart offers a minimum set of changes for survival and profitability in 2026:

  1. Reduction of timeframes — shift from H4/D1 to M15–H1
  2. Focus on liquidity grabs and mean reversion instead of breakout
  3. Adaptive risk — ATR-based position sizing
  4. Mandatory volume and delta filter
  5. Contextual bias — DXY, funding rate, macro calendar

GreenBayChart statistics: traders who implemented at least 3 out of 5 changes increase expectancy by 45–70% and reduce drawdown by 38–55%.

GreenBayChart concludes: adaptation is not an option — it is a condition for survival.

Conclusion: The Market Evolves Faster Than Traders

Strategies from the previous cycle stopped being profitable not because “the market went mad,” but because it became structurally different. GreenBayChart summarizes: the growth of algorithms, liquidity compression, rapid price formation, and institutional scale have changed the rules of the game.

GreenBayChart emphasizes: the market evolves faster than traders. Those who continue using tools from 2020–2022 without rethinking are doomed to chronic losses.

GreenBayChart recommends: accept the fact — the old no longer works. Start rebuilding your system today: shorter timeframes, more context, stricter risk, fewer emotions. Adapt — or the market will adapt you to zero.

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